Sunday, February 6, 2011

Are We Going To See Double-Digit Interest Rates In Real Estate Again?

 No, we are not going to see double-digit interest rates in Real Estate any time soon. The economic and political environments today are far different from those of the early '80's.
Two clients have posited this question to me, comparing the economic ravages resulting from the political situation of the 70's and early '80's with what arguably could happen today. Essentially their line of thought was that there are today so many affinities with back then, that a recurrence of the double-digit phenomenon is more than likely. Like in the '80's, they contended, a new Chairman has taken control of the Federal Reserve System. The United States is involved once again in a military conflict that is dragging down the economy. America's external debt is staggering. Employment, although not weak, is losing steam to outsourcing and there is today once again looming on the horizon the threat of stagflation caused by ever-increasing energy prices, further exacerbated by a possible military confrontation with Iran.
When Paul Volcker assumed the reins of the Fed in 1979, he indeed inherited an economy left pretty much in shambles largely by the policies, both domestic and foreign, of the Nixon Administration, the effects of which had reverberated heavily also throughout the Carter years. America had freshly ended the Vietnam nightmare, and had gone through a political oil embargo largely wanted by the Saudis and their Arab allies in retaliation for America's open political, military and economic support for Israel, and for offering asylum to the deposed Shah of Iran, Mohammed Reza Pahlavi. The Cold War was the reality of the time, with Western Europe coming more and more under political pressure from the then USSR. And finally, a resurgent Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini (1900 - 1989) was set to transform Iran, a staunch US ally under the Shah, into an Islamic populist, theocratic and definitely anti-American republic - thus establishing the path of the Ayatollah's policy towards the 'Great Satan', which ultimately pushed the United States to side with Saddam Hussein in the Iran-Iraqi conflict.
It was within this historic context, therefore, that Paul Volcker took command of the Fed and ended the stagflation that had plagued the United States by drastically limiting the growth of the money supply, abandoning the previous policy of targeting interest rates. As a direct and proximate consequence of a reduced pool of money, inflation peaked at 13.5% in 1981, before being successfully lowered to 3.2% by 1983, and has remained low ever since. The transition from Keynes-based policy to monetarist-based policy was a painful one, however, as it precipitated the significant recession the US economy experienced in the early 1980s, which included the highest unemployment levels since the Great Depression, as well as the highest interest rates ever. The unprecedented growth that the US economy subsequently has enjoyed over the next 25 years, however, has more than validated Volker's policies, which were continued by his successor at the Fed, Alan Greenspan.
By contrast, the world does not look nearly as ominous today.
With the advent of Reaganomics, the school of economics embracing the theory of supply-side took over. Supply-side economics is a school of macroeconomic thought, which emphasizes the importance of low taxation and of business incentives in encouraging economic growth, in the belief that businesses and individuals will use their improved terms of trade to create new businesses and expand old businesses, which in turn will increase productivity, employment, and general well-being. Specifically, supply-side economics emphasizes the importance of encouraging increases in supply and, thus, production of outputs, which result in lower prices in the marketplace and increased demand for products, thus spurring competition, increasing employment levels and generating the overall expansion of the economy.
The focus has somewhat changed after the end of Reaganomics and the advent of consumerism and globalization. The economic sensibility, sensitivity and reaction of consumers to the manipulation of interest rates has brought forth the consideration that Central banks have no handle on productivity and real economic growth, and that economy-wide recessions and booms reflect fluctuations in aggregate demand rather than in the economy's productive capacity. Thus, monetary policy is no longer viewed as a supply-side instrument but, rather, as a demand-side macroeconomics tool, at least so goes the rationale of the US Federal Reserve System and of the European Central Bank.
The impact of Reaganomics was magnified by one single event in the world's political arena: the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and the subsequent collapse of the Soviet Union. In December, 1979 Leonid Brehznev (1906 - 1982), the General Secretary of the Communist Party, had dispatched the 40th Army in support of the fledgling Marxist government of Hafizullah Amin. Although victorious at first, the 40th Army was dragged down in a 10-year all out war not only against the anti-Soviet Mujahideen but, factually, against the whole of Islam, which had declared a holy Jihad to combat the 'atheist infidels'. The Mujahideen and their allies were openly and generously aided economically and militarily by the Reagan Administration (an event that the Pentagon has come to regret, in later years), and this fact was the single largest catalyst to America's economic recovery as well as expansion, through appeasement with most of the Islamic world, which brought lower oil prices and that has lasted until today (with a few exceptions ... but, then, nobody is perfect).
It is impossible to talk about stagflation today. Stagflation is a term used to describe a period characteristic of high inflation combined with economic stagnation, high unemployment, and economic recession. It can hardly be said that there is economic stagnation and high inflation nowadays or, for that matter, widespread unemployment. In fact, both the United States and Canada are forecasting expanding economies for 2006 with an anticipated GDP of 2 percent and 2.5 percent respectively. Additionally, the political landscape today is totally different. In the era of globalization, gone are the times of major political confrontations and of more or less covert hostilities. The major economic powerhouses - North America, The Asian Tigers and the Euro Zone - have everything to lose and nothing to gain by antagonizing each others, as economic and financial interests are so intrinsically intertwined worldwide.
It is true, in my view, that in the forthcoming years the increase in energy costs, declines in both profitability and output of US major domestic industrial producers, such as the automobile and high-tech sectors, the increased reliance on imports manufactured by holders of US debt (Japan, China and India), the estimated shortfall of pension funds for an aging population, the uncertainty of value in stockmarkets and a progressive affordability crisis in real estate - all suggest that North America is entering a period of economic uncertainty which, however, greatly differs from the precepts of stagflation. Additionally, monetarist policies executed by Central Banks are now tried and tested, unlike the time when Paul Volcker took over, and there is no need for draconian measures to be enacted on the part of the Fed. In fact Ben Bernanke, the new Fed's boss, has publicly made statements arguing in favor of a 2 percent inflation target over two years.
So, in conclusion, are we going to see double-digit interest rates any time soon? I strongly doubt it. We will see steady interest rates increases, somewhat limited in scope and spread out at intervals apart, so as to allow the economy to adjust.

Historical Fiction - The Way Forward - Unique And Effective Writing

 For those of you who love to write historical fiction, this article may be useful for you to develop writing skills as well as to improve quality of your writing piece.
As we all know among people who are historical fiction writers that writing kind of this work requires a lot of time and massive effort as well as creativity to combine the historical fact with the story to make the perfect casting as well as endearing and dislikeable characters.
The benefit of writing historical fiction is the historical part is very easy to draw attention of the readers or audiences. This is because of most of historical fact already memorable for people in terms of the story itself as well as the characters in the story and they will easily understand what you are trying to present. However, even though the history is good and memorable for people, but if it is present poorly so it will generate unpleasant reading experience, which means the writer must spend a lot a lot of time to create story to make it reliable and realistic applied to all characters in the story as well as they have to specify length of the story do not too long or too short.
How to create effective piece of historical fiction writing work
You have to make sure that you write the true and accurate history. There might be some other people that know better than you about the fact of the history. Apart from that, the key point is you have to make them feel that they have been sent to the period of such a story. Therefore, it is very necessary for you to take a comprehensive study about time and period of the history as well as the fact and all the detail inside that story to make sure you have complete accuracy of it.
In fact, not only you have to know exactly about time sequence of the history but also you have to know about the place where the story actually happened and it's surrounding. For example, if you are writing about political situation you will have to know the major and sometimes minor historical and political events of the country and the impact of the situation that effect to other country countries surrounding it. Then you have to find out how the people who live in that period about their attitude as well as their actual feeling about that situation.
But this is only half way through, you still have some more work to do. You may also have to take further study of pattern of languages that people used in that period as well as other element. You have to study about what kind of type of dressing they worn social and all detail of life style such as food, transportation entertainment, music style that they listen or even type of weapon that they used.
So this is only first step of how to create a quality and effective historical fiction, which is very easy to follow, then take further study how to improve your writing skill of historical story then you will become success.

Gulliver's Travels As A Satire

 "Gulliver's Travels" consists of four parts, each of which is about a different voyage to another strange place. The original title of the book was "Travels into Several Remote Nations of the World. In Four Parts. By Lemuel Gulliver, First a Surgeon, and then a Captain of several Ships.".
This work is a famous satire of the contemporary England and its institutions. In it Jonathan Swift uses an ancient satirical device: the imaginary voyage.
Lemuel Gulliver, the narrator, is a surgeon in a ship. He received a good education. He is in fact revealed as a good example of humanity. His personality is quite easy for the reader to identify with.
In the first voyage he is shipwrecked. Swimming, he comes to the empire of Lilliput, where he is a giant among diminutive people. He is at first quite amused by what he confronts there: the tiny people with their little civilization. But later it appears that they are vengeful, cruel, treacherous, ambitious, and malicious.
The second voyage is to Brobdingnag. This is the country of the giants, each of whom is ten times larger than a European. It seems that with this country Swift aimed at portraying the ideal country in his mind; therefore, Brobdingnag is a kind of utopia. It is ruled by a decent prince who is the embodiment of moral and political wisdom. Gulliver's discussions with this prince contain clever satires of the contemporary British politics and institutions.
In his third voyage Gulliver is in Laputa, the flying island. This part is a clear allegory for the political life in England under the administration of the Whig minister Robert Walpole.
The fourth part takes place in the country of the Houyhnhnms (hwin-ims). Houynhnhms are a race of horses. These horses live by reason. Yahoos, who are their slaves, are mere creatures of appetite and passion. Their bodies look like human shapes but they have no sign of reason.
Gulliver's travels appealed to everyone, and it still does. It was an interesting story for children, simple enough for them, and a challenging satire for adults, complicated enough to leave them in confusion. In the last chapter of 'Gulliver's Travels' Gulliver says that he has become incapable of telling lies. What is strange about this is the oath he swears in narrating that is in fact a quotation from Sinon, through whose lies the Trojans were persuaded to accept the Trojan horse. Thus, he forces the reader to keep alert, not to be engaged with the surface, but to look for the depths. However, in the end the reader reaches no clear conclusions but left with some fundamental questions like what a human being is, whether we are reasonable beings. In fact this is what Swift aims at: to make the reader think.
Part I. A Voyage to Lilliput
This part begins with some information that Gulliver gives of himself and his family: his family had a small estate in Nottinghamshire, he attended Emanuel College in Cambridge etc. He always had a desire to travel, which he later fulfills most effectively. In his first voyage he is shipwrecked. After some struggle with the sea he is safely ashore on the coast of the empire of Lilliput. There he finds himself tied and imprisoned by a numerous tiny human beings.
Like in other parts we see in this part, too, the realistic descriptions of the fantastical which gives the incredible some sort of credibility. For example the arrows and spears of the Lilliputians are described as needles.
There he is taken good care of. Some learned men are appointed to teach him the language. He is fed, which scene is impressively described- meat carried by twenty vehicles, and ten vessels of liquor afford him "two or three good mouthfuls".
Then he is searched, his sword and pistols taken from him. During this search Gulliver is very kind to them though he had the chance to harm them, with which he gains great sympathy and favor of them.
He pleads with the emperor for his liberty, which represents Ireland's situation with respect to England. Then he witnesses an acrobatic show. In this country, acrobatics is the way to get a governmental office. Only the best acrobats can get the office, which is of course a funny allegory for the political situation in England.
As a result of his mild disposition, he is given liberty on some conditions, which include his allying against the Empire's enemies. The greatest enemy of the empire is Blefuscu, which stands for France. The emergence of the enmity between them depends on quite ridiculous reasons- the story of the egg.
He is of great help to the empire in the war against Blefuscu. He brings all the enemy fleet fastened by a cable to Lilliput. Blefuscu ambassadors plead for peace. Gulliver is given a title of honor. Blefuscu ambassadors invite him to their country, which intimacy enrages and provokes his enemies in Lilliput.
One day there is a fire at the empress's apartment. Seeing no other way, Gulliver puts it off by urinating on it. The empress is quite annoyed with that. Then he describes the habits, laws, and customs of the Lilliputians. In these descriptions, there are clear satirical references to the British laws and customs and institutions. For example, "in choosing persons for all employments, they have more regard to good morals than to great abilities".
Then he is informed of a vicious plan against him prepared by his enemies there (the treasurer, and the admiral, both of whom stand for Swift's real enemies in England.) The articles of impeachment against him include his urinating on the royal palace to stop the fire, his rejecting the further demands of the king to help them completely take over Blefuscu, his kind behaviour to Blefuscu ambassadors, and his intended voyage to Blefuscu.
Upon learning this, Gulliver leaves Lilliput, and is welcomed in Blefuscu. The emperor there helps him on his departure, providing for him some cows and bulls, by showing which in England he makes " a considerable profit".
Part II. A Voyage to Brobdingnag
This, too, begins with realistic elements like "we unshipped our goods and wintered there; for the Captain falling sick..". In this country everything is a scale of ten to one in relation to our familiar world.
Gulliver is caught on the shore by one of the natives and brought to a farmer's house where he fights with two rats and kills them. There he establishes good relations with the farmer's daughter who treats him like her doll, laying him on her doll's cradle etc. Soon he becomes the center of attention. The farmer decides to take him to town and show him to public so as to gain money through him. Gulliver gets very tired of these shows, during which they travel many cities and towns. Finally they arrive the capital city Lorbruldug. There, the queen recognizes him and buys him. Thus his stay at the court begins.
There he has some discourse with the prince who appears to be a man of wisdom and enlightenment. Gulliver pridefully describes his country, England, and its institutions. The prince ridicules him for that.
Then he describes some accidents that happened to him there out of his comparatively tiny form. There is a repeated emphasis on his weaknesses there and on the ridicules of the others. Some further discourse with the prince takes place. He talks to him about gunpowder and its uses in his own world. The king is both amazed and astonished to hear it. He despises Gulliver and his country for having such inhuman devices, and bids him not to mention it to anyone.Gulliver tries to exempt his country from the king's accusations in vain.
There is the criticism of the mercenary army in England standing without the authorization by the Parliament, too. Gulliver stays in this country for two years. Then one day the king and the queen go to a place near the ocean taking him, too, within a box. Suddenly an eagle takes him with the box and drops the box down onto the sea with Gulliver in it. After some time an English ship finds him. Thus he comes back to his country.

A Spiritual Perspective on Politics

 The current financial and political situation has been coming for awhile. Our system of control of power and money benefits those who are already rich and powerful. The people in our country and other consumer based nations have been living their lives based on an illusion. Assuming their basic needs are more than being met, the people strive to make more and more money to purchase more and more things. When they have what they want, they are relatively content. The truth is, too much value has been placed on maintaining personal lifestyle and too little value has been placed on the greater good of everyone. What could we do to help improve the lives of others if all the money being spent on military endeavors and projects that make corporations richer went into feeding the hungry, treating the sick, and helping people make positive shifts in their lives? What if everyone decided to be content and grateful for their blessings and changed their consumerist ways? What if citizens in our communities started sharing with and helping each other? Yes we are individuals, but we are also interconnected energetically to all other energy. The current societal focus seems to be on separation, separation from each other and separation from our collective creation energy. Our society values individualism more than community as evidenced in the every person for themselves attitude. Where is the balance? From a spiritual perspective, the energy flows triangularly and is interconnected. Being in balance means balancing your personal energetic flow, self to Self, self to others and self to The Loving Universe.
This may be too simple an approach, but we are spiritual beings in physical form. It is time for more attention to move towards individual and collective spirituality. This is a major change. It means choosing love over fear. Too many people are living in fear, fear of the future, fear they will lose their financial security. Fear energy builds on itself. It is hitting people right now at their cores. When fear hits at your core, it is time to examine what within yourself is creating that fear. Fear is all around us. It is each of our choices what we will do with the prevailing fear energy. What are we really afraid of and who is generating this atmosphere of fear? Living in fear makes people feel powerless. Who is gaining from the climate of fear?
The prevailing belief on most of this planet right now is in a lack of resources, there is not enough for everyone. This creates a system of haves and have nots. The power and control lie with a few, who have plenty, compared to the majority who feel they do not have enough. Maybe, most of us already have enough. Some are just not satisfied with what they have and constantly strive for more. Striving for more becomes the center of our lives, distracting us from what is really going on. The pressure is constantly present in advertising and more deeply in the very principles on which our society is structured. The way our governments and financial institutions were structured was eventually bound to change. The illusion that all is well and we just need to keep borrowing and spending to maintain our way of life, could not be maintained forever, even though those in power tried to keep it going. Life is about change, yet as human beings most of us resist change. Change is uncomfortable. It elicits fear, fear of the unknown future. Each of us needs to connect with our inner core, our true self, which has nothing to do with what is going on in the world around us. Whatever is happening around us, it will pass. Remaining in balance, despite what is happening around us is important right now. Otherwise, those who are feeding the fear, and have the most to gain from a population who are focused on the present situation, will continue to manipulate others for their own gain, maintaining power and control.
Does it matter who wins the election? I feel it does. Otherwise I wouldn't choose to vote. If a major change is made in political administration, other changes will naturally follow as part of the process. If a major change does not happen in the political administration, the new president will still be faced with problems to solve. The approach to creating solutions will just be different. There are no simple solutions. No president will wave a magic wand and create universal peace, happiness and harmony. We the people create peace from within, starting with our own lives, reaching out from there to help others, taking action politically to promote change. The time for complacency on the part of the majority of the citizens is over. This election is very much about fear, fear for the future, fear of loss of security, fear of change. Whoever you choose to vote for, do it with love in your heart, love for all the people, love to balance the fear energy.

The Unfortunate Side to Politics

 By definition Politics is the balancing of different opinions and values to serve a collective purpose of running the affairs of the state. Those who can play the Political game can be very effective in gaining support to obtain positions of authority, but there is an unfortunate side to Politics in the way people manoeuvre and how you must do likewise even if you prefer a more straight forward approach to dealing with people.
Whenever you have worked in a company where there is a hierarchy, no matter how small, you are in a Political situation. The ambition of your colleagues, sub-ordinates and superior managers all bounce together and this creates friction. Just doing your job is not enough you must be aware of the Politics of business and handle yourself in the midst of these interactions.
This type of awareness is becoming particularly important in the recession where finding a new career or job is particularly difficult with unemployment rising. Job security is about performance but also about Politics, you read about harassment and discrimination and unfortunately this is something you must actively avoid through purposeful tactics in dealing with your colleagues.
Any personal relationships in a business have an effect when decisions are made. You will encounter people who go out of their way to befriend a senior partner or manager in your business. Often this bears fruit when promotions are handed out, but it can backfire as well with many managers or directors cynical towards this type of behaviour. Walking the tight rope of interpersonal dealings with people and maintaining a professional distance is very difficult, but one that must be mastered.
Talking to colleagues you will hear many of them declare that they avoid politics in their life because they find it unpleasant. If you become isolated this will come back to haunt you when you need the support of others so you must engage with people and help manufacture their opinions of you through your own behaviour. But be careful what you say, most of the time the opportunity to score points to a director or manager will mean more than holding confidence pledged to you in private. A simple rule of thumb is if you do not ever want management finding out something; say nothing to your colleagues.
My decision to enter real life Politics was to learn to function in this type of environment not only to progress within the party I am a member of but to deal with people in a professional way. To succeed in Politics means networking, maintaining and growing new relationships and showing a keen willingness to learn. It also means negotiating when to stand for a position and being able to defeat, but not destroy opponents and still maintain a positive relationship with them. Private resentment may occur, but the best Politicians manage to win through. Too many times in the past I found myself in situations where dislike towards me meant that I had to conceded to myself that I was not playing the Political game well enough.
A fantastic example of this in the real world was the infamous deal made between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown after the death of leader John Smith brought about an impromptu leadership contest in the Labour Party in 1994. Blair managed to keep the support of Brown whilst getting his own way standing without the opposition of Brown who would have made his leadership challenge far more difficult. During his career Tony Blair was renowned as a skilled Politician who negotiated his way to the top with single minded ambition and brilliant handling of the people he needed to help him achieve his goals.
You must remain positive towards others, whilst keeping a professional distance. Colleagues should know you are fair, but ruthless in your pursuit of this fairness. Your private life should stay private and your demeanour personable, however if opponents and allies alike are not aware of your conviction to the cause whether that be towards the business or the next election then this is a mistake on your part. If they know you will make a tough decision, they will not be upset when you make the right choice even if it is a choice that negatively impacts them.
This does not mean that being warm to people is a tactic. My own dealings with people are genuinely friendly and warm at all times. But there is nothing wrong with having an awareness that political beings will seek mutually beneficial secret pacts and cliques. It is human nature to want to be friends and seek allies in situations where you are not secure, in business and political circles security is rare where maintaining authority depends on votes, support and confidence in your abilities. You can be part of these cliques by all means however be aware of where the benefit lies and for whom. The benefit may be yours, if so embrace it!
The difficulty for you in befriending your work colleagues is that most of the time you are interacting only in the business environment where other factors are at work aside from your apparent friendship. This is only found out at key moments where your misguided sense of loyalty from apparent friends may expose you in circumstances where awareness of your true position in terms of politics would give you time to prepare the right defense in the situation. Remember that when personal advancement is available, any consequences to others are generally forgotten or conveniently not considered. I have a high morale code and would not screw people but remember this does not mean that others behaviour towards you will be so honourable.
A healthy dose of friendly cynicism is recommended in all dealings with people. This does not mean you cannot be genuinely warm but remember that trust is earned over time and through actions, but a leopard can change its spots. It is unfortunate that people will seek to step on your own progress to facilitate their own, but you can make it far harder for them by not exposing yourself to such actions. Your own awareness and political manoeuvrings of your own will keep you in control of your own progression through the worlds political minefields.
95% of people you interact with are good honourable people. Make sure that to the rogue 5% of people you are not an easy target. This applies to all areas of life.
Malcolm Clarke is a freelance writer with over 300 published articles online. He is an active member of the Labour Party.

Organizational Political Savvy

 It is a fact of organizational life: politics influence virtually everything that happens in an organization. Leaders, especially change leaders, must develop political savvy. I am not advocating unethical behavior, but I am recommending that leaders consciously fine tune their political awareness.
In organizations, individuals and groups are continually vying for scarce resources. Each one is attempting to maintain or enhance its self interests. Many leaders and consultants underestimate these powerful forces.
Any attempt to implement organizational change will invariably threaten one of these individuals or groups. Organizational change is frequently accompanied by conflicting interests, unethical behavior, and emotional turmoil. Change leaders must learn to navigate these dangerous waters.
Power and Change
The word "power" has positive and negative connotations. In this chapter, we will concentrate on the positive, ethical uses of power. Burke (1982) believes "for change to occur in an organization, power must be exercised" (p.127).
Let's take a brief look at Richard Emerson's Power-Dependency Theory. Emerson's (1962) theory depicts a social relationship between two parties in which scarce resources (commodities and rewards) are controlled by one party and desired by another. Thus, power is inherent in any social relationship in which one person depends on another.
"Commodities" in power-dependency theory can include social commodities, such as respect, praise, influence, and information. French and Bell (1999) state, "We enter into and continue in exchange relationships when what we receive from others is equivalent to or in excess of what we must give to others" (p.284).
Bases of Power
Managers and consultants should be able to recognize the bases of power individuals, groups, and coalitions exert in organizations.
French and Raven (1959) suggest five bases of power:
1. reward power - based on the ability to reward another
2. coercive power - based on the ability to punish another
3. legitimate power - based on the holder's position
4. referent power - based on charisma (i.e. popularity)
5. expert power - based on knowledge or expertise
Mintzberg (1983) also speaks of five bases of power:
1. control of a critical resource
2. control of a critical technical skill
3. control of a critical body of knowledge
4. legal prerogatives (e.g., exclusive rights)
5. access to any of the other four bases
Additionally, Mintzberg believed the influencer must have both the "will and skill" to use his or her base(s) of power.
Salancik and Pfeffer (1977) also contribute some valuable insights into our understanding of power in organizational settings. They view power as a positive and necessary force for change and progress in organizations. They believe power bases can be created by the placement of allies in key positions.
Using Political/Power Skills
For change efforts to succeed, managers/change agents must develop and use power skills. The first skill required is the ability to analyze the current political situation. Failure in this assessment phase invariably leads to frustrated change efforts.
French and Bell (1999) believe, "one gains a quick understanding of the overall political climate of an organization by studying its methods of resource allocation, conflict resolution, and choosing among alternative means and goals" (p.286).
Greiner and Schein (1988) believe change agents must be able to assess their own power and to identify key stakeholders. Only after assessing their own power base(s) can they determine how to use it/them to influence others. This assessment will also reveal areas where enhancement of power is necessary. Some of these weak areas can be strengthened by developing allies in the organization.

Art is a Reflection on Society - A Perspective

 Art has always been a reflection of the emotions, personal struggle, and the path breaking events of a contemporary society. When a society demands or undergoes a change, art has mostly subtly complied with it. The Oxford Dictionary describes art as "the quality, production, expression, or realm, according to aesthetic principles, of what is beautiful, appealing, or of more than ordinary significance." In effect, art definitely is an expressive platform for individuals, groups, as well as society, especially the radical changes or events witnessed thereof. It usually depicts the current or a particular scenario in the purview of the political situation, economic, social, geographical, the emotions spun therein, the undertones of revolutions, and uprising, to name just some.
If we go periodical about discussing art as a reflection of society, then we begin from the most ancient. The 'Prehistoric Art' consisted of paintings on the rocks and caves, which symbolized their routine lifestyles and rituals. The paintings were therefore, an evidence of their culture, which helped historians derive information about the life, culture, and the civilization of this era. The famous 'Indus Valley' or 'Harappa,' 'Greek,' and 'Egyptian' civilizations, especially had prolific artistry, including sculpture, architecture, paintings, engravings, and metal art.
In fact, the most we know about these amazingly rich civilizations, is credited to their narrative artifacts and buildings only. For instance, the 'Egyptian Civilization' believed in life after death. The society therefore, had a strong spiritual framework, concentrating more on the human journey after death. They believed in immortality and worshipped many deities, a fact distilled from the paintings adorning the walls of the great Pyramids. The Greek Civilization however, was more emphatic about the human form, its poise, and beauty, reflecting mostly on the attires, body languages, hairstyles, and cultures prevailing over different periods.
Creativity adopted the sects of 'Art Movement' to depict the realities of a contemporary society, vis-à-vis, its stable fabric, regularly changing aspects, and even revolutions. The impact of the contemporary socio-political scenario has also always been portrayed. For instance, before the First World War, Paris used to bustle with great political activity. This restlessness somewhere influenced the development of 'Cubism' by Pablo Picasso and Georges Braque. 'Cubism' involved the depiction of a particular subject from multiple angles, a practically prevalent situation then. The artistry turned mysterious in essence, to manifest the hatching of diverse political conspiracies in Paris at that time.
Expressionism' was another art form developed, when the society was undergoing transitions at different levels, including creative. There was a revolt against the traditional outlook towards art. A modern approach was adopted. The 'Modern Art' was a blend of 'Abstract Realism,' in which the subject was distorted to depict its reality and emotional upheaval. The colors in the paintings have nearly always portrayed the true emotions of the subject, the event, or the mood of the artists.
To conclude, we can say that art may always not be beautiful aesthetically or comprehensible to all. It however, should be powerful enough to portray the current emotions of the society, including exposing harsh and subtle truths, while also encouraging the betterments. The only constant in the world is change. In tune, societies metamorphose through different annals of time and art helps capture the resulting twists and turns in the contemporary culture and lifestyle.

Online Currency Exchange Rates

 If you are trading Forex you can be familiar with Forex exchange rates. Rates are crucial instruments of trading and their usage can advance your trading. Forex market is very volatile and its changes can influence your approach of trading. Your task is to make constant research of the currency pairs that fluctuate making upward and downward movements. Currencies change their movements because one currency work against the other and global situation in the world can influence the strength or the weakness of particular currency. So the currency rates change regularly under this influence in the Forex market.
Strength of the currency can be determined by a lot of factors. The profits or investments brought in particular country strengthen its stability and consequently makes this currency firm in the Forex exchange. Import and export exchange rates determine the stability of the country and its currency. If the rates of export increase, the influx of revenue moving to the country rises. So the currency becomes stronger and has a tendency to grow in price. Global situation and events can significantly influence the currency and trading market entirely. According to these events countries can lessen the export or import and this significantly impacts the currency trading rates.
Political situation is not the last factor you should take into account. Surely the political atmosphere in a specified country may control the influx of the currency market field and influence the online Forex exchange rates. When political inconstancy occurs, there are situations when investors need not to trade. If you want to avoid unpredictable losses you should skip the trade before significant news releases that will influence currency exchange rates significantly. Significant news concerning the export-import, investments or political agreement should be taken into account in the Forex market. Currency exchange rates are very dependable instruments in the Forex market so use them with a great care.

Importance of PEST Wrap Up for Various Businesses

 If you think that it is possible to succeed in business without making any strategic plans and continuous evaluation of co performance you're mistaken. Sure, it is possible to achieve short-term financial goals and get immediate cash but you almost certainly fail in the long term. Competitors aimed at wiping out your business and that will surely do that as long as you offer them such an opportunity. One of the most common mistakes most business owners and top managers make is that they view of their business separately from political, economic and social environment. Besides, many of them forget about technological progress. The company may be doing OK right now without using the latest technologies, but in several years it will lose competitive advantage. Thus, it is imperative to thoroughly analyze external environment the company operates in, and this is where PEST analysis is of great assistance. Now, let's see what PEST is and analyze each of its component parts.
Let's begin with political factors. We all watch news and read news stories online. Thus most of us can understand that politics plays a prominent role in our lives. This also concerns business since important statements made by influential politicians can cause serious economic changes. As known, changes in economy directly influence customer purchasing power and thus affect company financial results. It is not a secret that many big companies especially international ones have own analytical departments that deal with political trends. If a company is planning to enter in new market it should properly analyze political situation in that country to forecast possible consequences of political changes there.
No one can deny importance of financial factors. Even if a company produces the best products and offers the best services in the world it is pointless to run business in a country where consumer purchasing power is very low and the government faces serious financial problems. There are a number of economic indicators that demonstrate well being of national and international economies such as customer purchasing power, gross domestic product, rate of inflation etc. Thus, before launch in any product line and company should definitely analyze economic situation in the countries to which the chosen markets belong.
Social factors play equally important role. Every business operates in a society and it is an inseparable part of the society. That's why if a company ignores social trends, tendencies, movements and developments it is doomed to fail. Consumers should percept the company as part of their society. It is impossible to learn about consumers' needs, demands, desires and expectations without proper social analysis. Besides, we're living in the age of social media work social networks play a great role. So, a successful company should analyze social trends and make relevant decisions on how to improve products and services as per social expectations and demands.
Finally, due attention should be paid to development and use of latest technologies. Even if the company is doing OK without the latest technological know-how in several years it will feel it lacks tech support.

16 Factors to Consider in Determining and Establishing Monetary and Fiscal Policy


Monetary and fiscal policies have impact on the total economy. Those macroeconomic policies shape, and guide and control the behavior of the economy. The following factor needs to be considered in making monetary and fiscal policy:
1. Inflationary state of the economy:
If the economy suffers higher inflation then increasing money supply through monetary policy can be ineffective. So in making monetary and fiscal policy this factor should be considered
2. Marginal propensity to consume:
The willingness of people to consume is another factor in making those policies. Suppose if people's tendency is to consume whatever the interest rate is then monetary and fiscal policy may be ineffective
3. Govt.'s estimated GDP target:
Every govt. has specific GDP target. Govt. makes policy to achieve the estimated GDP target. So this should be taken into consideration in making monetary and fiscal policy.
4. Economic condition of a country:
When the economy is in a recession, monetary policy may be ineffective in increasing spending and income. In this case, fiscal policy might be more effective in stimulating demand.
5. Present interest rate in the market:
In setting the policies another considerable factor is the present interest rate. The present interest rate determines whether expansionary or contractionary monetary and fiscal policy should be introduced. The success of the policy depends on considering this factor.
6. Govt. revenue target:
In each and every year govt. sets specific revenue target. Through the budget govt. specifies it. So in making fiscal policy it should be considered. Suppose, in contractionary policy tax is reduced. If this happens then the policy contradicts with the aim to achieve revenue target.
7. Govt. policy toward import and export:
Sometimes govt. wants to bar against import or export, so in making fiscal policy and monetary policy this should be taken into consideration. Reducing export duty or imposing import duty to any industry can have an impact on govt. policy.
8. If the economy is in booming situation and nation is experiencing industrialization, In that situation if govt. want to reduce the pace of industrial growth monetary and fiscal policy then become a tool. So this factor can also be considered in creating new policies.
9. Govt. policy on privatization:
If govt. want to privatize and encourage private sector to grow, Govt. will take privatization policy. In this case govt. will give facilities to the private sector by lowering taxes and decreasing interest rate through monetary and fiscal policy and vice versa. So govt. perspective on privatization is another important considerable factor.
10. Balance of payment:
Balance of payment is another important factor. If the govt. wants to decrease trade deficit certainly it can encourage export and discourage imports. So, monetary policy will reflect the desire of Govt.
11. Influence of Donor institutions and countries
As a third world and developing country like Bangladesh, where we are dependent on huge loan from the international organization. The influence of those organizations sometimes can be a considerable factor in making monetary and fiscal policy. In our country IMF and EU always pressures govt. to increase the deposit rate. So in policy making this is a considerable factor for the govt.
12. Enforcement of the policy:
In making the policies, it should be determined and ensured that the policy should be in effect. Enforcement and implication is very much important here.
13. Expectations of people regarding future:
If people expect that the monetary policy and fiscal policy will create tax burden in future, then policy implication can be difficult. So it should be taken into consideration.
14.Foreign Currency reserve:
Each and every year govt. especially central bank has some specific foreign currency reserve target. In order to increase the reserve, favorable monetary policy should be introduced. So it is also important factor in consideration.
15. Political stability:
A country's political situation is another consideration for making those policies. If there exists stable political situation then any policy can be implemented easily. But in case of unstable political situation it's difficult to implement those policies.
16.Govt. spending on structural buildup:
If govt. has a policy to build up infrastructure, then govt. make fiscal policy in favor of govt. Spending. Here govt. spends much to develop the structure in transportation or other areas
Those are some factors needed to be considered in making monetary and fiscal policy.

Political Science Books - The Key to Understanding the World

 Whether you are interested in politics, you will find that, at some point in your life, you will be influenced by politics, be it at your workplace, home, or school. However, when we talk about politics, we generally refer to the political situation of the country, state, region or city we live in. Consequently, almost all political science books are written keeping these factors in mind. In fact, most courses in colleges and universities around the world also prescribe books that teach students the political situation in their country or that of the rest of the world.
There is a school of thought that says that political science can help you prepare for studying law. This is due to the fact that much of what you study in politics comes from law. You read about the laws that govern various processes in your country. Political processes, such as elections, the judiciary, procedures for appointment of the prime minister and president and various other laws, can form a part of this course. As a result, books written on this subject give a very detailed perspective of laws governing the country.
Additionally, political science books can help you compare the laws of your country with those of some other countries. For instance, you can compare the political process of two of the world's biggest democracies of the world - United States and India. Both countries follow different forms of democracies, which are successful in their own ways. If you want to study it in greater detail, then consider taking up a book related to the politics of the country and read it in detail. You will gain plenty of knowledge of the way the country functions and will learn how, despite of its fallacies, a country is successful in its political process.
If you are not planning to join law school at a later stage, you must still read books related to political science. They will help you become active citizens and help you understand how you can use the laws of your country in your favor as well as that of society. For instance, you can pick up a book on how the Freedom of Information law was enacted in Britain by the House of Commons. Similar laws are available in other parts of the word under different names. The US Department of Justice, too, has enacted its own version of the Freedom of Information act.
Reading political science books will make you an informed citizen. If you are a political journalist, you will find that books on this subject will help you find vital information that can help people know how to approach and question their leaders. If this is the case, you must set aside some time to read and understand the political process of your country as depicted by the book you read.
Getting information about the political process of your country can be a daunting task that can be simplified by the help of books on this subject matter. It is, therefore, recommended that you must read them to know your country better.